South Sudan’s Fragile Peace Under Strain with 400 Ceasefire Violations

Juba, February 26, 2026

By Savanna Radio News Desk

 

Ceasefire monitors say South Sudan’s fragile truce is under severe strain, after documenting more than 400 violations across the country in just seven months, raising fears of a slow slide back into wider conflict.

The body tasked with overseeing South Sudan’s ceasefire says it has recorded over 400 violations nationwide in the past seven months, including clashes, troop movements, and attacks on civilians, exposing deep cracks in the country’s peace and security arrangements. According to the monitoring body, the violations span multiple states and regions, affecting both government and opposition-held areas. Reported incidents include:

• Armed clashes between rival forces and militias.

• Unauthorised troop movements and new deployments.

• Attacks on civilians, looting, and intimidation.

• Obstruction of humanitarian access and freedom of movement.

Monitors say some of the most serious breaches involved the use of heavy weapons in populated areas, resulting in deaths, injuries, and displacement.

 

Responsibility and Patterns

Preliminary findings suggest that both government forces, opposition groups, and affiliated militias bear responsibility for the violations.
Key patterns highlighted include:

• Localised fighting driven by power struggles, land disputes, and control of resources.

• Spoiler groups resisting the peace deal and exploiting weak command-and-control structures.

• Persistent failure to canton, unify, and deploy the necessary joint security forces envisaged in the peace agreement.

The monitors warn that repeated violations with limited accountability are emboldening armed actors and normalising impunity.

 

Impact on Civilians and Aid Operations

Communities in affected areas report renewed fear, displacement, and the loss of livelihoods as clashes flare up near their homes and farms.
Humanitarian organisations say:

• Insecurity has restricted access to vulnerable populations.

• Looting and harassment have disrupted relief operations.

• Civilians are increasingly caught between armed groups, forced to flee or pay informal “taxes” at checkpoints.

Local leaders warn that continued insecurity could worsen food insecurity and deepen already dire humanitarian needs.

 

Questions Over the Peace Process

The scale of the violations raises serious doubts about the implementation of the ceasefire and the broader peace roadmap. Analysts and civil society voices argue that:

• Political leaders have failed to rein in their forces and fully commit to the security arrangements.

• The slow pace of security sector reform and unification of forces has left multiple competing chains of command.

• Without consequences, the ceasefire risks being treated as a flexible guideline rather than a binding commitment.

Some warn that a “creeping war” is underway, localised violence that, if not contained, could escalate into a larger national crisis.

 

Calls for Accountability and Action

Ceasefire monitors are urging:

• Public naming of units and commanders responsible for serious and repeated violations.

• Stronger political pressure on all parties to respect the ceasefire.

• Immediate steps to complete cantonment, screening, and deployment of unified forces.

• Better protection for civilians and humanitarian corridors.

They stress that documenting violations is not enough unless it leads to concrete corrective measures and accountability.

 

Government and Opposition Reactions

Officials from the government and various opposition groups typically trade accusations, each blaming the other side for the majority of the breaches while downplaying their own role.
Both camps often:

• Claim self-defence or “local issues” as justification for incidents.

• Question the neutrality of monitoring reports when findings go against them.

• Promise to investigate, but provide little public evidence of disciplinary action.

This blame game, monitors say, undermines trust and delays needed corrective steps on the ground.

 

What’s Next

Savanna Radio will continue tracking:

• The release of detailed ceasefire monitoring reports and any naming of responsible actors.

• Responses from the presidency, opposition leaders, and regional guarantors.

• Whether there is any tangible reduction in violations in the coming months.

• The impact of these trends on preparations for elections and the broader peace roadmap.

For communities across South Sudan, the numbers are not just statistics, they are a daily reminder that peace remains fragile, and that promises on paper have yet to fully translate into safety on the ground.

 

CTSAMVM stands for Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism in South Sudan. It is a multinational body under IGAD that monitors, verifies, and reports on whether the parties to the peace agreement are respecting the permanent ceasefire and implementing the agreed transitional security arrangements, and it submits its reports to RJMEC and the IGAD Council of Ministers.